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 [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   12th November 2016, 5:01 pm

@Sailor Venus wrote:

(why people keep saying she was the miller?, it clearly says she's mafia in the graveyard) 

Kai confirmed that the Miller is shown as Mafia even in the Graveyard list (read the messages page 2 if you've forgotten). Which makes sense, what's even the point of saying that the miller is mafia when you kill them, but write them as miller in the graveyard immediately after?

So Jupi could be Mafia or Miller, we don't know. We can only make speculations based on her posts, but it's risky.
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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   12th November 2016, 5:03 pm

My comments were not completely baseless. I was going off past experience playing with Brit (who, by the way, has been Mafia in all other games I've played before this one). Obviously, she acts the same when being accused whether or not she's innocent. I have learned that past experience isn't always the best thing to go on now. From now on I will not do so.

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   12th November 2016, 5:22 pm

Evangelion wrote:
@Sailor Venus wrote:

(why people keep saying she was the miller?, it clearly says she's mafia in the graveyard) 

Kai confirmed that the Miller is shown as Mafia even in the Graveyard list (read the messages page 2 if you've forgotten). Which makes sense, what's even the point of saying that the miller is mafia when you kill them, but write them as miller in the graveyard immediately after?

So Jupi could be Mafia or Miller, we don't know. We can only make speculations based on her posts, but it's risky.


-sigh- Forgot about that one.

@Sailor Zelda wrote:
My comments were not completely baseless. I was going off past experience playing with Brit (who, by the way, has been Mafia in all other games I've played before this one). Obviously, she acts the same when being accused whether or not she's innocent. I have learned that past experience isn't always the best thing to go on now. From now on I will not do so.


While that is totally understandable (and it makes sense at some point), I gotta say that every game is different. I've been dead absent from many games before but each time I play I suspect EVERYONE until they "prove" me wrong.

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   12th November 2016, 5:47 pm

Well, okay, reverse psychology is kinda my thing, I'll agree with that. But still, wouldn't be worth it.

One, because of the Miller role, no one ended up trusting me anyway. In fact my vote was seen as suspicious. You think I can come up with such an intricate plan but I wouldn't see that coming?
Two, if I accidentally killed the Oracle and they had investigated me? Auto game-over.

I would absolutely vote for my own partner, but not when it wouldn't help me to.

Anyway. I will not be voting for Evangelion because his defense seems solid for now, and neither for Zelda because if she's mafia, Motoki has to be too, only that would explain her vote.

It's Motoki or Venus for me. But I don't wanna make all the calls - I've shared my thoughts, but I'll just follow the popular vote between the two. (If it's between the two - if you all think I'm the one, go ahead)

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   12th November 2016, 5:52 pm

Also, I want to make a list of possibilities similar to Light's. It might be redundant at times but I will do it differently, so maybe it will be more clear for some (honestly, his post wasn't always clear for me). I'll only consider what happened on D2 because it's the more important.

First hypothesis: Jupi was the Miller.
In this situation, lynching a townie on D2 meant that the mafia wins, we've already explained this yesterday. As said before, Light (or me) could have voted to lynch Brit on Day 2 and it would have killed her (ending the game), but we didn't. So we are innocent.

So there are three possibilities for the mafia pair:
- Motoki-Zelda
- Motoki-Venus
- Zelda-Venus
Reminder that Brit and Light voted for Motoki, and then Zelda and Motoki voted to lynch Brit. Venus didn't vote, and I clearly wrote that I didn't vote so there could be a tie, and we could avoid a lynch.

If Zelda-Venus were the mafia pair, then they could have voted to lynch Motoki (who is therefore a townie, and they know it). 4 votes, there's nothing he could have done against that, he dies, and since he's innocent, we lose the game. So I don't think that Zelda and Venus are the mafia pair. The only pairs remaining and Motoki-Zelda and Motoki-Venus, both are which are equally probable. Motoki being the only one common to both pairs, it's simply the safest solution to lynch him, because he IS mafia anyway.


Second hypothesis: Jupi was mafia
Then there are 4 townies for 1 mafia: we can afford to make a mistake. Lynch a townie, and we're down 3-1 by N4, then they kill someone and we are 2-1. 
So maybe Light killed his partner on purpose. I mean, the strategy seems so stupid and risky that no one would attempt it, right? But maybe he expects us to think that way, so he looks reliable. But you know what? 
There's no way we can know for sure at the moment, and who cares? There are simply too many possibilities, Light could be mafia and killer his partner on purpose. I could be mafia, Zelda could be mafia, Venus could be mafia or Motoki could be mafia and we didn't defend our partner on purpose.
But no matter what happens, who is mafia, we can make a mistake in this case, we're certain to reach D4, we will be down to 3 players so it will be easier to consider every possibility.

So for me, voting Motoki seems to be the most logical solution. Maybe he's a townie and therefore it means that Jupiter was a mafia member, but we will still reach D4.
Sorry Motoki, it may sound harsh, maybe you're indeed a trustworthy townie, but we have to make sacrifices.  Sigh...
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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   12th November 2016, 5:59 pm

I don't think it's Venus TBH. I think she's a townie trying to make the best calls. Don't really agree with the "guilty until proven innocent" strategy, I'm definitely the inverse, but different strokes for different folks. 
If Jupiter was Mafia it's Mokoti. Or maybe Evangelion, I have a crazy gut feeling about that, likely 1000% wrong there. If Jupiter was Miller than they're Mafia. 
Darn it why does everything in this game hang on Jupiter's true role? Don't answer that, I know why.

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   12th November 2016, 6:05 pm

Hmm, Evangelion, you seem awfully convinced of Mokoti's role. I mean, I agree, he's the most likely one here, but could you be the Oracle? Or Stalker but outing your partner like that would be stupid in all the ways

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   12th November 2016, 6:28 pm

I don't even know if Motoki is mafia/stalker. All I'm saying is that we have to lynch someone today, and he's the safest choice.
As I said, there is the possibility that Jupiter was a genuine mafia member. Then any of us 5 could be the stalker, we can't prove our innocence in any way. We can try to overthink each other's post, but that's it, we have no evidence (remember when we thought that Brit-chan could be mafia simply because of the way she wrote? oh boy we were wrong). However, we can afford to make a mistake if we lynch someone, so I'd say it doesn't matter if Motoki is a townie and we lynch him (well he won't be able to play anymore, but that's the game).
What matters now is the other case: Jupiter was the miller, 2 mafia members are still alive. Then Motoki has to be one of the two mafia, I've explained it. I don't know who is the other mafia, I'll see that later.

Motoki can be a townie, I'm not sure about his role, there's no way of being sure unless I'm the stalker. Being the oracle wouldn't change a thing because according to the rules, they can only get the info when they die: for most of the game they're just a regular townie.
But mafia is a game where we can afford to make mistakes and lynch an innocent under some conditions, so I'm willing to make that kind of mistake.
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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   12th November 2016, 6:33 pm

As I understood it, the Oracle gets info every night but they only get it revealed when they die? Could be wrong there, but that's how I read it.

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   12th November 2016, 6:48 pm

@Zelda I'm fairly certain the Oracle doesn't get info.

I wonder if the Oracle should tell us who they are, narrow things down more.

Ooooh I'm asking them to reveal themselves because I want to avoid killing them - totes mafia.

But think about it. The Stalker has had 3 investigations.

Let's assume the best for us scenario. N1, they investigated one of the deceased (Cosmos or Jupi if miller). They targeted Brit on N1, so they obviously did not investigate her, and Cosmos on N2, so they investigated someone else then. They have investigated at least 2 of the current living townies.

That means that if there's 2 mafia and 3 townies, they have investigated 2/3 townies. Which means they know the third too.

If there's 1 mafia and 4 townies, they have investigated 2/4 townies. Even if they still don't know who the Oracle is, they have a safe kill for N4. Which is the final night anyway.

I don't know. Is there a way you all think this can hurt us? In fact, if the game goes to a D4, we're gonna have a confirmed townie, the Oracle. While claiming on D4 will obviously mean nothing.

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   12th November 2016, 7:03 pm

I see no way the Oracle coming forth could harm us. Except them dying, but then the remaining Mafia runs the risk of possibly being revealed.

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   14th November 2016, 5:55 am

Okay then. Since there's nothing else to be said, I'll have to cast my vote.

While I am finding Venus extremely suspicious, I have already explained why Motoki seems to be the same vote, to ensure at worst (if he's innocent) one more day.

I could be swayed to voting Venus if others find her more suspicious than him. But it would be a risk.

Vote Motoki-doki

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   14th November 2016, 5:56 am

*same=safe (oops)

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   14th November 2016, 6:55 am

Vote Motoki-Doki

I've already explained why I believe he's the safest bet, and nobody found a reason good enough to dissuade me from voting for him.
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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   14th November 2016, 11:18 am

I'm not the only candidate for a "safe vote" and personally I think Venus and Zelda being reserved and pretty much only posting to vote is just as if not more suspicious than me "suspecting everyone". Light is also a possibility, but I'd rather not lynch him because he's willing to do math lol and therefore a vital ally. I also would have had to sit back and do nothing as Jupiter was lynched on day 1. And again if she were the miller, the Mafia missed an opportunity to win.

Vote Sailor Venus

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   14th November 2016, 1:29 pm

Vote Mokoti Doki

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   14th November 2016, 1:31 pm

Wow, posting only to vote, really? 
I don't even...

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   15th November 2016, 5:21 am

Sorry for the delay! I set an alarm for the phase change but fell asleep Sad

Anyway: With Motoki-Doki the Stalker lynched, the Cows win! Ill post a little bit more as soon as I get to my PC

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   15th November 2016, 7:43 am

YEEEESSSSSSSSS

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   15th November 2016, 9:05 am

Wait I'm confused, how do the trains win if the Stalker is dead?

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   15th November 2016, 11:11 am

:wink:

Ju paid me to let her win
No Ive just made a mistake while making the Update. OF COURSE OUR COWS ARE THE WINNERS ^__^

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   15th November 2016, 11:43 am

Here is the link to the Sheet for everyone who's curious!

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   15th November 2016, 12:00 pm

And to think, I defended you jupi!

Man, I was way off. Good game, everyone!

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   15th November 2016, 12:43 pm

Aha! So Jupiter acted confused to throw us off and make us consider her the Miller. Well done.

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   15th November 2016, 12:54 pm

And I fell right for it. XD

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   15th November 2016, 12:54 pm

Kai wrote:
:wink:

Ju paid me to let her win
No Ive just made a mistake while making the Update. OF COURSE OUR COWS ARE THE WINNERS ^__^
Kai was just secretly rooting for the trains but he won't admit it.

That Miller sure made things complicated, glad it all worked out

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   15th November 2016, 12:59 pm

Well played Light, you made good guesses. We could even have ended it D2 but I wasn't brave enough.
And at the end of the game Motoki did a good job at looking innocent even though maths played against him 


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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   15th November 2016, 1:06 pm

Good game guys! Shout out to Motoki for staying alive as long as he did. We didn't know one vote would kill me in the first round since we haven't played that way in the past and it just blew a huge hole in our strategy! We were purposely making Motoki suspicious to use him as a sacrifice to cover me later on. Wish I could've seen how the game would've played out with me in it longer but oh well!

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   15th November 2016, 1:32 pm

Sailor Venus will now be known as the girl who lived.

Yer a Miller Maru

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PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Cows vs Trains - MAFIA GOTY EDITION (Cows Win!)   15th November 2016, 2:09 pm

Re Motoki is Mafia:



Pffftt hahahah. I knew right off the bat the second he put his "theory" out there. The hard part is convincing everyone to go with me all the while there is that itty bitty chance he wasn't mafia. I was trying to be more aggressive and get people to talk this game but it just got taken as defensive ness. That seems to happen a lot in these games on here lol.

And man Light, getting Jupi right off the bat on D1 threw me off so bad the rest of the game. I was like 80% sure of myself that you and Motoki were mafia and had stalked Jupi N1, discovering she was the miller, so easy plan to get her lynched so we are all fooled the rest of the game. It's why I was so distrusting of you. But you are just so logical I wanted to trust you so bad xD Like I said my paranoia in these games have made the town lose before so I'm glad it worked out. Very Happy

Go Cows!! Great game everyone!


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