HomePortalFAQRegisterLog in
Share | 
 

 [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]

View previous topic View next topic Go down 
Go to page : Previous  1, 2, 3  Next
AuthorMessage
Mana Yggdrasil
Star Seed

avatar

Star Seed

Posts : 16
Join date : 2017-07-16

PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   12th September 2017, 5:27 pm

"Haa..." You really do not want to go there. Taking a Queen position when there's no guarantee that you're town. At the least, I do not have a link, however murky, to another player. The only player you Can link me to is with an in absentia. What do I gain by revealing it right now, when I can do so at the end of Day 1. Town gets that information either way. You will have to wait until tomorrow, or simply bandwagon me. In which case, you just sunk your own argument. 
I've given my time. All that is left is the wait..
Back to top Go down
Sailor Mars
Inner Senshi Admin
Administrative Director

avatar

Inner Senshi Admin   Administrative Director

Title : GC's Official Kaolinite
Posts : 1160
Join date : 2016-06-24
Age : 22
Location : Germany


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   12th September 2017, 6:54 pm

This is more a personal thing and has nothing to do with the Game, but can you use the Usernames instead of the Senshi Names, Mana? For me it's rather confusing and I don't want to memorize each person's character name or look then up when you are referring to them XD

Anyway back to the Game:

First of all, there is no possibility for either Mafia or Town to find out who is which Cop. With the Paranoid Cop dead, all that Townies can rule out is that a person with a Guilty Report cannot be the Naive Cop, other than that, everyone could be anything. Mafia (as well as Townies) could rule it down a little bit, as long as people has reports on them. People with inno reports on them cannot be the true Cop, while people with a Guilty report on them can either be the True, or the Confused Cop. In no situation will a role be cleared. (Reversed for Townies of course) The only possible way to tell for sure in this scenario, would be if everyone had a guilty report, except of one person. But since we already have a bunch of Inno reports, there won't be only one possible Naive Cop.

The sole purpose of everyone giving us their Reports today, is not to figure anything out today. It's rather working towards the bigger goal of figuring things out on Day 2. With one of the 'real' Cops dying, we get either a Mafia Player to lynch, or a Town Player to make the Final Calls, since we have the reports from today. If not, we can work with two reports instead of one, which is a lot more useful.

So both Sailor Uranus', as well as Mana's Points of Views are a little bit flawed. While Sailor Uranus stated that Mana is delaying her Report because she is a Mafia player wanting to figure out what to claim, Mana herself stated that she wanted to figure out which Cop she actually is. As previously stated, while there can be a pool of possible Roles, Mana won't be able to figure out what role she actually has. Although I have to admit that there is a grain of truth in Uranus' statement, because while the Mafia needs real reports to create their pool, a real Cop does not.

This leads me to the conclusion, that Mana is indeed right, and that it won't make a difference if she posts her report now, or in 12 hours, as long as she does so before the end of Night 2. But, and this is a very big but: While there is no difference, there is also no reason to delay the report, and this is what makes Mana look scummy. Beside the ungrounded push against me of course. Stalling for time without a reason, is a possible strategy to cause confusion on the town's side. 7 hours isn't much in a Forum Mafia, and the chances to get a random lynch through are high.

BUT NOT ON MY WATCH

Vote no Lynch
Finalize Vote no Lynch


I have already stated while a No Lynch is the best option today. And even while I think that Mana is scummy, I won't just blindly run into a Lynch that might end up as false. For that I don't have heard enough of the other players. Especially Anait *wink**wink*

Also can you please explain to me the foundation of your 'links'? While I understand that Uranus and I might seem like we are working together, since we both think you're scummy, I don't see the connection between Cosmos and Light.

___________________________


Back to top Go down
Light
Roleplaying Moderator

avatar

Roleplaying Moderator

Title : GC's Official Saphir
Posts : 2336
Join date : 2013-04-21
Age : 27
Location : Lost somewhere in Europe


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   12th September 2017, 10:30 pm

You have no links Mana? A link is not only two that seem to work together. A link is also two that seem to try too hard to prove they don't work together.

While you have made some decent points strategy-wise - and even though I disagree with you withholding your report information, I respect that you have given it thought to do so - you said something just too weird about Mars. That Mars claims to be Uranus but he can't be Uranus but... Honestly, I still don't even get it?

From what I gather, you've said it was just a misunderstanding. But

Sailor Mars wrote:
This leads me to the conclusion, that you didn't come up with the thought yourself, but simply reposted it to seem more Townsided.

I wonder if Mars already knows that this is the case? It wouldn't be unlikely that he instructed Mana to say something weird like that, so he can easily defend himself and convince us they are on opposing teams if something goes wrong.

That said, whatever his alliance, I also do agree it's too risky to lynch either, and while it's a thought, it's far from proof that they're mafia.

Vote & Finalize No Lynch

___________________________

   


Signatures by Sailor Neptune and Roro
Back to top Go down
Mana Yggdrasil
Star Seed

avatar

Star Seed

Posts : 16
Join date : 2017-07-16

PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   13th September 2017, 5:14 am

Mana Yggdrasil - Sailor Moon: Usagi Tsukino
Day 1 Status: Alive

Day 1 Report: Mercury was Innocent
Back to top Go down
Mana Yggdrasil
Star Seed

avatar

Star Seed

Posts : 16
Join date : 2017-07-16

PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   13th September 2017, 5:44 am

Geesh, go away for the night and that comes up, The final will look like a mafia that way. It's just 1 more until a skip, and without a report from Jupiter.

As for their link Mars, opens One-Note.

Cosmos-Hime - Sailor Saturn: Hotaro Tomoe
Day 1 Status: Alive

Day 1 Report - Sailor Pluto is Innocent

Light - Sailor Pluto: Setsuna Meiou
Day 1 Status: Alive

Day 1 Report - Sailor Mars is Guilty

Closes One-Note


Pluto reports you as guilty, you make a statement, then Saturn reports Pluto as Innocent.


Just noted I mixed those two up for some reason. Probably cause that was the start before I decided to order it.


Also, I typed this out during my first post, then cut it.
Here's the Original:
 



I am all for a No Lynch today, and have been from the first post, but it only takes 1 Town for a vote to go any way right now, as well as tomorrow.

On this note, and as you, Mars, said, I think we should all Investigate you tonight, and you investigate Uranus. If we pop up with enough Guiltys or a bunch of Innocents, that gives us a decent chance at lynching guilty party, and with another dead tomorrow, we should have enough info to find out what roles we are.

Also, to address my trying to figure out my role, I know I need more than 1 night to figure it out. And at least this will tell us if Pluto's is right. Of course, he could also be the Mafia, but that's normal for this game. he should also be the first to report then, if it's a guilty verdict, since withholding an innocent report makes him look like Mafia. And yes I know that makes me look like one today. But I won't need to tomorrow, as long as he gets it out of the way. I'll even go second if you like.
Back to top Go down
Anait Zelleire
Lotus Crystal

avatar

Lotus Crystal

Title : 'some witty/deep quote about life that makes ppl laugh/think here'
Posts : 1192
Join date : 2013-08-21
Age : 23
Location : Texas


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   13th September 2017, 9:26 am

SORRY FOR THE HOLD UP
SO uh I kind of forgot and when I checked yesterday afternoon there was no activity and I actually fell asleep really early yesterday evening
 OK SO I SKIMMED LIKE A PLEBIAN, saw my name mentioned but whatever, it's always a tactic that the last to answer is somehow suspicious or what not.

SO I investigated Light and got innocent, which is useless I'm super sad cause I tried to investigate myself but was resoundingly told no.  

Umm I like not lynching ppl cause it's going to be literally just a guess at this point without more data so we could choose to investigate one person and see what happens, sounds like a good idea to team up

___________________________

Back to top Go down
http://anaitlovesall.tumblr.com
Mana Yggdrasil
Star Seed

avatar

Star Seed

Posts : 16
Join date : 2017-07-16

PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   13th September 2017, 10:19 am

Well, If everyone would Investigate Mars.

Can we get some talk everyone, so we're on the same page.


Also, Jupiter,(That's you Anait/Z) Please read it all, and saying the last to reply is suspicious is a bit late given you replied in the last hour/last 4 hours. Give us your thoughts on the interactions. And next time, please join in, like, early sometime. We only have 48 hours, so no matter when you post, someone is going to be last.
Back to top Go down
Anait Zelleire
Lotus Crystal

avatar

Lotus Crystal

Title : 'some witty/deep quote about life that makes ppl laugh/think here'
Posts : 1192
Join date : 2013-08-21
Age : 23
Location : Texas


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   13th September 2017, 10:33 am

Manna Yggdrasil wrote:
Please read it all, and saying the last to reply is suspicious is a bit late given you replied in the last hour/last 4 hours. Give us your thoughts on the interactions. And next time, please join in, like, early sometime. We only have 48 hours, so no matter when you post, someone is going to be last.

Reading it all would probably be helpful, however I didn't find much content wise so I skimmed to be able to get my first response out, I only have so much time for a lunch break Smile I was saying that for some reason ppl always think the last to reply is suspicious and AS THE LAST PERSON TO GIVE MY RESPONSE I was commenting on how everyone else commented on my lateness and that I didn't really care that I was late and I don't personally use that tactic, cause real life happens.

As the first day I have no real thoughts towards the interactions so far, it's just everyone puffing their chest and making baseless claims.

Considering we have a 48 hour period, I will join in during that 48 period whenever I please, that's what a time limit is for.  Obviously someone is last to post, however I was last to respond and if ppl think it's suspicious well that's just the way it is.

___________________________

Back to top Go down
http://anaitlovesall.tumblr.com
Mana Yggdrasil
Star Seed

avatar

Star Seed

Posts : 16
Join date : 2017-07-16

PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   13th September 2017, 10:36 am

Fair enough, Though that makes figuring out if Pluto's guilty report is correct even more important.
Back to top Go down
Sailor Uranus
Outer Senshi Admin
Roleplay Director

avatar

Outer Senshi Admin  Roleplay Director

Title : Oh, you mean you DON'T have an Elephabulous? Shame.
Posts : 12110
Join date : 2011-09-15
Age : 29
Location : NE Texas


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   13th September 2017, 4:53 pm

Sailor Mars wrote:
This is more a personal thing and has nothing to do with the Game, but can you use the Usernames instead of the Senshi Names, Mana? For me it's rather confusing and I don't want to memorize each person's character name or look then up when you are referring to them XD
^ I second this @.@ with different forum members actually having that name on here I'm having to triple thing back to who was assigned what just-for-fun title.

Sailor Mars wrote:
The sole purpose of everyone giving us their Reports today, is not to figure anything out today. It's rather working towards the bigger goal of figuring things out on Day 2. With one of the 'real' Cops dying, we get either a Mafia Player to lynch, or a Town Player to make the Final Calls, since we have the reports from today. If not, we can work with two reports instead of one, which is a lot more useful.

So both Sailor Uranus', as well as Mana's Points of Views are a little bit flawed. While Sailor Uranus stated that Mana is delaying her Report because she is a Mafia player wanting to figure out what to claim, Mana herself stated that she wanted to figure out which Cop she actually is. As previously stated, while there can be a pool of possible Roles, Mana won't be able to figure out what role she actually has. Although I have to admit that there is a grain of truth in Uranus' statement, because while the Mafia needs real reports to create their pool, a real Cop does not.
I agree that day 2 will be the bigger reveal for roles, but I wanted more readings from night 1 during day 1 so I can see what I can get from things to narrow down cop roles for my records - if Mana had investigated me, for example, I could use her results to narrow down the possible role she holds because I know my alignment; this is something that only each of us can do separately with any certainty - I know Kai is either Normal, Confused, Naive, or Mafia because of what he read with me - there's no way I can prove that, but I can keep a record against what he reads tonight please do read me so I can attempt to knock out the "confused" role for you XD and compare it against what others reveal to see if the mafia missteps and ends up misclaiming a role that someone else obviously has with their results track record. The more people investigate me, the easier it is for me to pinpoint what cop roles they could hold and see where the mafia is doubling up/hiding. With everyone investigating Kai tonight, we'll all get data but he'll get the best data because only he knows his role for sure and taaadaaa if the mafia kill him so he can't figure out who they are by our results, we'll still get good info by solidifying his role, which categorizes his initial reading of me, and then we can use that and what everyone else gets to see where the mafia are hiding and apply pressure. don't die kai but thanks for taking the investigation risk for the team ;D♥

Ahem anyway, with Mana stating that she had read Zelda, telling us what she read when she read it, if it's not a grasp at easy straws for a mafia person, would stick her either into the 'normal/naive/confused/mafia' stack or the 'insane/confused/mafia' stack for everyone's records. 

^ MY THOUGHTS, the end.


I agreed in the beginning about not lynching anyone for lack of data but I forgot that voting 'no lynch' was actually a vote deal thing, so I'mma hop right on that train to see if we can inch this day into ending early. 
Vote No Lynch
Finalize Vote



Mana Yggdrasil wrote:
Also, to address my trying to figure out my role, I know I need more than 1 night to figure it out. And at least this will tell us if Pluto's is right. Of course, he could also be the Mafia, but that's normal for this game. he should also be the first to report then, if it's a guilty verdict, since withholding an innocent report makes him look like Mafia. And yes I know that makes me look like one today. But I won't need to tomorrow, as long as he gets it out of the way. I'll even go second if you like.
It wasn't that you withheld an innocent report because you didn't post first, it was that you withheld an innocent report after posting 3 times (active in comparison to me, Cosmos, and Anait) and brazenly ignoring that everyone else was posting their results, only revealing whom you investigated after it was brought to the forefront that you weren't doing what the rest of us, in good faith, were doing, and then insisting on not telling what result you got on the only cleared player until everyone else posted what they had. That's what makes you look like Mafia. 

I do not agree with the assumption that investigation post order somehow clears a person.

___________________________

Back to top Go down
http://fanfiction.net/~kyralih http://kyralih.tumblr.com
Cosmos-Hime
Moderator

avatar

Moderator

Title : ミ☆ GC's official Sailor Cosmos! ミ☆
Posts : 10809
Join date : 2014-11-14
Age : 25
Location : Somewhere over the rainbow...


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   13th September 2017, 9:27 pm

I have never been more lost in a mafia game in my life, and I'm sure even writing this post will make me seem suspicious. I honestly have nothing else to add that hasn't already been said; everyone has good points, considering this round is special in regards to how the players don't know their own roles-with the exception of the person who is the lone mafia member, of course.

So if it looks like I'm piggybacking off of others ideas rather then coming up with my own deductions, it's because I am. Everything considered, I agree that a random lynch would do nothing more then give the Mafia an upper hand, and we will be able to figure more things out once we've lost another member and their role is revealed.  

Vote no Lynch
Finalize Vote to No Lynch

That being said, I'll investigate mars(kai) tomorrow, if we've decided on that-and see if my result comes up as something different then it did during the previous night round-and hopefully the result would make things a bit easier. 

Also darn it for not being able to investigate yourself.

___________________________


 GC's Official Sailor Cosmos
Back to top Go down
http://sailormoonfan224.tumblr.com/
Sailor Neptune
Outer Senshi Admin
RP Graphics & Canon Admin

avatar

Outer Senshi Admin  RP Graphics & Canon Admin

Title : Drinker of Roleplayers' Tears ~ The Internationaliest™
Posts : 8883
Join date : 2013-07-25
Age : 30
Location : Indonesia


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   13th September 2017, 10:49 pm

With the majority voting no lynch, Day 1 is over.

Night 2 now starts. All players please send your role actions to me.

___________________________

  
Avatar & signature by Diana
 ♥
Back to top Go down
http://senshiofserenity.tumblr.com
Sailor Neptune
Outer Senshi Admin
RP Graphics & Canon Admin

avatar

Outer Senshi Admin  RP Graphics & Canon Admin

Title : Drinker of Roleplayers' Tears ~ The Internationaliest™
Posts : 8883
Join date : 2013-07-25
Age : 30
Location : Indonesia


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   14th September 2017, 11:25 pm

Night 2 is over.

Sailor Moon (Mana Yggdrasil), the Normal Cop has died.

Day 2 lasts for 48 hours or until someone gets more than 50% of the votes to be lynched.

___________________________

  
Avatar & signature by Diana
 ♥
Back to top Go down
http://senshiofserenity.tumblr.com
Sailor Mars
Inner Senshi Admin
Administrative Director

avatar

Inner Senshi Admin   Administrative Director

Title : GC's Official Kaolinite
Posts : 1160
Join date : 2016-06-24
Age : 22
Location : Germany


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 12:30 am

My Night 2 Report is that Light is Inno

But time to lay open my cards, and tell everyone what I've held back on Day 1:

In a Vanilla Setup, there is a Strategy called Hypocop. It is a possible thing to do after the Doctor dies on Night 1, and the Cop has no protection. Instead of just the Cop giving out a report, all players (the 3 Villagers, the Cop and the 2 Mafia) give out a Report. While everyone gives out a Fake Report, the Cop gives out his real Report. This makes it harder for the Mafia to hit the real Cop, while making sure the Town still gets the Cop Report for Day 1 if they do.

What's interesting in this Scenario, and what applies to this Setup as well though, is the Mafia's thought process the following night: Since they are trying to kill the real Cop, they will look at everyone's Report. People with Guilty Reports on Townies, as well as people with Inno Reports on them can't be the real Cop, and can therefore be ruled out. This means that they have a high chance of killing the real Cop, or not doing so in case they want to counterclaim him. (Reasons for that would be a guilty report on one of the Mafia players for example.)

But the Town is also able to look back at the Reports from Day 1 and figure out why the Mafia has killed the person they killed. And by going through the process in reverse, are able to rule down possible Mafia players.

Let's look at our Day 1 Reports:

Sailor Mars says Sailor Uranus inno
Cosmos-Hime says Light inno
Anait says Light inno
Mana says Zelda inno
Sailor Uranus says Sailor Mars inno
Light says Sailor Mars guilty.

And let's look at our dead target:

Mana

She seemed extremely scummy with her 'not wanting to claim'-behavior, and would be an easy target to push a Lynch on. Yet she died this Night instead of anyone else.

Since I know I'm Town from my point of View, this results in: "Okay why didn't they kill me instead - I could be Insane and this would leave Kyra as an open Mafia" "Okay why didn't they kill Cosmos or Anait instead - They could be Insane and that would leave Light as an open Mafia".

This brings me to the Result that both Kyra and Light are Mafia. Of course for everyone else, there are three possible Mafia Players: Light, Kyra and me. But this will be up to you to decide.

Good thing here is that Light can't easily team up with Kyra on this, since he has a guilty Report on me. This means if he was a Townie, it would be most likely that I'm Town, because of the high possibility that he's Insane. So it would be extremely weird to randomly start a lynch against me.

Of course to take the wind out of his sails, there is the possibility of him randomly checking me again but this time getting an Inno report, which would mean he's insane and his 'first day report means nothing'. So if oh surprise he does that, it should be a clear indicator for you that he is scum.

There is still a very slim possibility, that Cosmos or Anait are Mafia, and that they killed Mana to avoid getting a confirmation. But this possibility is very very slim, since a confirmed Townie wouldn't be as bad for the Mafia as a confirmed Mafia player, and I don't see them pulling of such an advanced Strategy - A strategy Kyra and Light are fully capable of.

Anyway I hope I didn't forget something. This Day will be mostly up to Cosmos and Anait to figure out who to lynch. And don't be afraid to make a mistake! It's just a Game after all ^__^

___________________________


Back to top Go down
Sailor Mars
Inner Senshi Admin
Administrative Director

avatar

Inner Senshi Admin   Administrative Director

Title : GC's Official Kaolinite
Posts : 1160
Join date : 2016-06-24
Age : 22
Location : Germany


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 5:53 am

Small Note: I will be gone all Saturday. I'll get my Lynchvote in later today and maybe will be able to post early tomorrow. It's not exactly the best thing during such a hot phase but sadly that's the way it is!

___________________________


Back to top Go down
Light
Roleplaying Moderator

avatar

Roleplaying Moderator

Title : GC's Official Saphir
Posts : 2336
Join date : 2013-04-21
Age : 27
Location : Lost somewhere in Europe


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 7:59 am

Well this is interesting. And this preemptive defensiveness is not scummy at all, you mean to say?

First off, I can't say I understand this:

Quote :
Since they are trying to kill the real Cop, they will look at everyone's Report.

...Why? What good will it do the mafia to kill the real cop in this game? As long as both the real and the insane cop were alive, it would be quite easier to manipulate the reports in a way that the mafia's claims appear to be more legitimate.

In every game, mafia wants to kill the real cop obviously. But here? I don't know, I don't think so.

Quote :
There is still a very slim possibility, that Cosmos or Anait are Mafia, and that they killed Mana to avoid getting a confirmation. But this possibility is very very slim, since a confirmed Townie wouldn't be as bad for the Mafia as a confirmed Mafia player,

Seriously, am I the only one who thought Mana was the most likely to die? Apparently you thought they were too scummy to kill, Uranus thought you would be more likely to die... But the benefits are two-fold.

One: They kill a cop before they get to share true information. And there was a 50% chance (possibly higher depending on mafia knowledge) that they were a useful cop.
Two: They do not clear a townie. You think this is a small thing? If mafia targeted someone who investigated an innocent, they could clear him. That means you, me and Uranus could be a confirmed townie.

I'm sorry, but I think that if any of us three were confirmed innocent and led the town, it would be bad news for the mafia.

Quote :
Of course to take the wind out of his sails, there is the possibility of him randomly checking me again but this time getting an Inno report, which would mean he's insane and his 'first day report means nothing'. So if oh surprise he does that, it should be a clear indicator for you that he is scum.

I'm surprised such a thing was suggested at all, before too... In order for this strategy to work at all for a true townie, I would have to BOTH actually be the confused (not insane) cop AND be lucky enough to get a different report - 50% chance I would get the same. Odds would not be in the favor of anyone doing this.

As poor and non-strategic thinking this is, I have to admit that I instantly suspect both you and Uranus simply for still being alive at this point and especially through Night 1 xD But I'll have to look past that.

Quote :
Good thing here is that Light can't easily team up with Kyra on this, since he has a guilty Report on me. This means if he was a Townie, it would be most likely that I'm Town, because of the high possibility that he's Insane.

Yes, thank you. With the all-guilty report gone, is there any reason why I would start off limiting my claim possibilities even more? It would be the easiest thing to say you're innocent. It's not like my guilty finding meant anything - I mean, you think me and Uranus are mafia and we got all inno readings on us. Why would I not go for the easy way out and pretend I got an inno report? (Which is probably what the real mafia did, considering everyone else conveniently got innos).

But I got an innocent on Uranus now. Which from my perspective, gives a 50% chance of you being innocent and Uranus being mafia. And another 50% that my reports mean nothing.

Honestly, there is one I feel I can trust now, and I will explain. But not before all reports are revealed.

___________________________

   


Signatures by Sailor Neptune and Roro
Back to top Go down
Light
Roleplaying Moderator

avatar

Roleplaying Moderator

Title : GC's Official Saphir
Posts : 2336
Join date : 2013-04-21
Age : 27
Location : Lost somewhere in Europe


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 7:59 am

Apologies for forgetting to put the name in the quotes! ^^;

___________________________

   


Signatures by Sailor Neptune and Roro
Back to top Go down
Sailor Mars
Inner Senshi Admin
Administrative Director

avatar

Inner Senshi Admin   Administrative Director

Title : GC's Official Kaolinite
Posts : 1160
Join date : 2016-06-24
Age : 22
Location : Germany


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 8:44 am

Quote :
...Why? What good will it do the mafia to kill the real cop in this game? As long as both the real and the insane cop were alive, it would be quite easier to manipulate the reports in a way that the mafia's claims appear to be more legitimate.

In every game, mafia wants to kill the real cop obviously. But here? I don't know, I don't think so.

As I stated, this counts for Vanilla and was an example. But since we have 4 Cop Reports here as well (not counting Mafia) we have the same Situation and the Mafia has the same thought process. It's nice that you've completely picked out of the example.

Quote :
Seriously, am I the only one who thought Mana was the most likely to die? Apparently you thought they were too scummy to kill, Uranus thought you would be more likely to die... But the benefits are two-fold.

One: They kill a cop before they get to share true information. And there was a 50% chance (possibly higher depending on mafia knowledge) that they were a useful cop.
Two: They do not clear a townie. You think this is a small thing? If mafia targeted someone who investigated an innocent, they could clear him. That means you, me and Uranus could be a confirmed townie.

I'm sorry, but I think that if any of us three were confirmed innocent and led the town, it would be bad news for the mafia.

First of all: Kyra has never stated anywhere that I'm the most likely to die. Has she told you so in private? And give me the Mafia thought Process. "Oh Kyra and Kai are already taking her apart... let's kill her so she doesn't get lynched and we lose." The reason she died and the reason I am still alive is, that you didn't want to risk anything. [/quote]

Quote :
I'm surprised such a thing was suggested at all, before too... In order for this strategy to work at all for a true townie, I would have to BOTH actually be the confused (not insane) cop AND be lucky enough to get a different report - 50% chance I would get the same. Odds would not be in the favor of anyone doing this.

As poor and non-strategic thinking this is, I have to admit that I instantly suspect both you and Uranus simply for still being alive at this point and especially through Night 1 xD But I'll have to look past that.

Of course this is not a strategy a true Townie would go for. It was just to make sure you don't come with this excuse as to why you don't think I'm a Townie.

Quote :
Yes, thank you. With the all-guilty report gone, is there any reason why I would start off limiting my claim possibilities even more? It would be the easiest thing to say you're innocent. It's not like my guilty finding meant anything - I mean, you think me and Uranus are mafia and we got all inno readings on us. Why would I not go for the easy way out and pretend I got an inno report? (Which is probably what the real mafia did, considering everyone else conveniently got innos).

But I got an innocent on Uranus now. Which from my perspective, gives a 50% chance of you being innocent and Uranus being mafia. And another 50% that my reports mean nothing.

Honestly, there is one I feel I can trust now, and I will explain. But not before all reports are revealed.

Giving a Guilty Report is just as easy as giving an inno report. You couldn't know that the true Cop was going to die Night 2. You could've just as well hit the Insane Cop and would be in the same situation with an inno report. This is simply no excuse.

@Cosmos and Anait: If they try to force a Lynch on you instead of me, please don't start voting against each other and instead follow me. Another reason This kill wouldn't make any sense in your position, would be that confirming either me or Kyra would be a good thing for you if you were Mafia, since we were already taking Mana apart and a Lynch wouldn't be unlikely.

PS.: To keep the post short, I have just have quoted what light has stated. If you wanna know the context, please read his post (as you should do anyway) ^___^

___________________________


Back to top Go down
Light
Roleplaying Moderator

avatar

Roleplaying Moderator

Title : GC's Official Saphir
Posts : 2336
Join date : 2013-04-21
Age : 27
Location : Lost somewhere in Europe


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 9:04 am

Sailor Mars wrote:
First of all: Kyra has never stated anywhere that I'm the most likely to die. Has she told you so in private? And give me the Mafia thought Process. "Oh Kyra and Kai are already taking her apart... let's kill her so she doesn't get lynched and we lose." The reason she died and the reason I am still alive is, that you didn't want to risk anything.

Sailor Uranus wrote:
and taaadaaa if the mafia kill him so he can't figure out who they are by our results, we'll still get good info by solidifying his role, which categorizes his initial reading of me, and then we can use that and what everyone else gets to see where the mafia are hiding and apply pressure. don't die kai but thanks for taking the investigation risk for the team ;D♥
._.

Yes, she didn't go and say "Kai is def ded tonight", but that's the primary thought I'm getting from this...

Sailor Mars wrote:
Of course this is not a strategy a true Townie would go for. It was just to make sure you don't come with this excuse as to why you don't think I'm a Townie.
You know if I'm a townie I wouldn't do this. I guess you don't know that if I'm mafia I wouldn't pick such a scummy excuse? It's like your posts so far describe me as a criminal mastermind and a complete idiot at the same time xD

Sailor Mars (added emphasis) wrote:
please don't start voting against each other and instead follow me.

...and if this is not the scummiest statement in the history of mafia, I don't know what is.

As far as I'm concerned, you can all think for yourselves, no need to follow me. I'll wait for more thoughts.

___________________________

   


Signatures by Sailor Neptune and Roro
Back to top Go down
Sailor Uranus
Outer Senshi Admin
Roleplay Director

avatar

Outer Senshi Admin  Roleplay Director

Title : Oh, you mean you DON'T have an Elephabulous? Shame.
Posts : 12110
Join date : 2011-09-15
Age : 29
Location : NE Texas


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 9:16 am

x_X okay I investigated Kai and got innocent again, so I could be the naive or confused cop if Kai is townie, or he's mafia and I'm confused or insane.

Kai's logic is sound! I was nervous that someone else would make that connection and use it against me - with me and Light and Kai being the only people investigated to get readings off of last night, then it would make sense that if any combination of us were mafia than the only safe kill last night would've been mana.

...but when have I played safe? 

If I were mafia and working with Light, last night, I would've gone for Kai, hands down. It'd be a risky move - if Kai was insane I'd be lynched, no question, but Light and I would have enough data knowing his role and having figured out Mana's the day before (if he and i were mafia and believed everyone's claims, changing my sheet around? tadaa mana'd have to be normal cop because everyone else would be insane, naive, or confused to get the readings they got), it'd allow him to masquerade as one of those cops and survive long enough to win. :> I'd win so long as he won so potential sacrifice ftw.

If I were mafia working with Kai, last night I'd've probably gone for anyone but Light because killing Light would've outed him as confused or normal, and as he read Kai as guilty, if he turned out as normal then Kai's gone, and with everyone supposed to have been reading Kai last night, it could've been easy to take me down with him since townies'd have an easier time tracking Anait's and Cosmos's role and Kai read me as guilty and ties hi. Taking out Kai would've lead to my downfall, so we definitely wouldn't've won. Who would we have gone for? Idk - I didn't spend too much time on what might've happened because if Kai and I were mafia, having us read on each other the first night would've been a bad move and we would not have made that mistake for the potential ties later.


I'm thinking that Kai, Light and I are alive right now because of who investigated us in round one and knowing that we can case, recase, and make these long posts that can be confusing. If the mafia are Cosmos and Anait this is perfect. If it's one of them paired with one of the three of us, still really good as the more talkative mafia member goes in circles and they just sit back and throw their lynch in while following the logic the partner throws out, knowing it'll make at least a little sense. 

BAAAA anyway, good move killing Mana and starting this.

___________________________

Back to top Go down
http://fanfiction.net/~kyralih http://kyralih.tumblr.com
Sailor Mars
Inner Senshi Admin
Administrative Director

avatar

Inner Senshi Admin   Administrative Director

Title : GC's Official Kaolinite
Posts : 1160
Join date : 2016-06-24
Age : 22
Location : Germany


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 11:15 am

Before I head to bed, I want to tell a little story as to why I'm so sure about this:

Once upon a time, was in the same Situation as our Mafia, being a Mafia Player in that Game that got accused for being Mafia with exactly the same reasoning I brought here. From experience I can tell that this is right more than 90% of the time. So after a player managed to correctly accuse me, they lynched my Partner on Day 2 and I went on to Day 3. On Day 3 I managed to talk the player who accused me of being Mafia out of it, getting him to lynch the last remaining player with me. On that day the two of us learned a lesson: Never get talked out of something like this, when the chance that this was manufactured is very low.

Sadly I don't have enough time to talk more with everyone so people will have an easier time deciding who to lynch. I apologize in Advance if this has a greater effect on the Game, but I've stated my point and came to my conclusion, it'll be up to you to decide who you want to lynch.

Vote Lynch Sailor Uranus
Finalize Lynch Sailor Uranus

I'll start with Kyra instead of Light, since I know that if she lives through to Day 3, she will be the one talking Anait and Cosmos out of lynching her.

Anyway, I only had 2 hours of sleep, so I will go to bed. I hope I'll see you all on a third Day! ^__^

___________________________


Back to top Go down
Sailor Uranus
Outer Senshi Admin
Roleplay Director

avatar

Outer Senshi Admin  Roleplay Director

Title : Oh, you mean you DON'T have an Elephabulous? Shame.
Posts : 12110
Join date : 2011-09-15
Age : 29
Location : NE Texas


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 12:58 pm

x.x honestly, I hope you guys do not believe I would do something so transparent if I were mafia.

What Kai is saying makes sense, which is why I wouldn't do it. Besides any of that, Mana had obvious playstyle differences that lead to conflict - if I were mafia I'd've wanted her alive to either frame her or make it look like we had a connection and take her down with me.

So far the "everyone investigate kai" plan fell through and we may not be able to get anything from it, but @.@ cosmos and anait, I'd like to hear what you've got.

___________________________

Back to top Go down
http://fanfiction.net/~kyralih http://kyralih.tumblr.com
Anait Zelleire
Lotus Crystal

avatar

Lotus Crystal

Title : 'some witty/deep quote about life that makes ppl laugh/think here'
Posts : 1192
Join date : 2013-08-21
Age : 23
Location : Texas


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 3:28 pm

It was revealed to me in a dream that I am very confused

___________________________

Back to top Go down
http://anaitlovesall.tumblr.com
Sailor Uranus
Outer Senshi Admin
Roleplay Director

avatar

Outer Senshi Admin  Roleplay Director

Title : Oh, you mean you DON'T have an Elephabulous? Shame.
Posts : 12110
Join date : 2011-09-15
Age : 29
Location : NE Texas


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 7:00 pm

Wait, like in a message from Neptune there was a hint that you were confused?

___________________________

Back to top Go down
http://fanfiction.net/~kyralih http://kyralih.tumblr.com
Anait Zelleire
Lotus Crystal

avatar

Lotus Crystal

Title : 'some witty/deep quote about life that makes ppl laugh/think here'
Posts : 1192
Join date : 2013-08-21
Age : 23
Location : Texas


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 8:03 pm

Beautiful! I feel like one of those npc ppl in a game that just give cryptic hints

___________________________

Back to top Go down
http://anaitlovesall.tumblr.com
Anait Zelleire
Lotus Crystal

avatar

Lotus Crystal

Title : 'some witty/deep quote about life that makes ppl laugh/think here'
Posts : 1192
Join date : 2013-08-21
Age : 23
Location : Texas


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 8:06 pm

I'm going to take a wild guess educated estimate and say that Mars is totally Mafia, she's just so passionate and quick to point the gun at others. You know who else does that? Mafia. Boom

___________________________

Back to top Go down
http://anaitlovesall.tumblr.com
Cosmos-Hime
Moderator

avatar

Moderator

Title : ミ☆ GC's official Sailor Cosmos! ミ☆
Posts : 10809
Join date : 2014-11-14
Age : 25
Location : Somewhere over the rainbow...


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 11:08 pm

Wait just a minute, Aniat. How could you have gotten a hint from Neptune when she wouldn't let you investigate yourself? Why would Neptune have given you a hint? 

I investigated Kai, and got guilty by the way. Why didn't you post what you investigated Kai(or whichever other member you investigated instead)?

Sorry if this seems suspicious, with my lack of posting and all guys. I just want to know the details as to how Aniat seems so certain that she's the confused cop. Especially when it was stated in the rules that all members would think they're the normal cop. 

Now, while I wait for Aniat's answer-I'll give make my big post here. 
text wall to separate ideas here


So as of right now, only 2 roles have been confirmed-and only upon death. The normal cop, and the paranoid cop. Paranoid cop, would get all investigation reports as guilty, and the normal cop investigates as normal.

Now, we get to the fun stuff. 
Light-one guilty report for Kai; one innocent report for Sailor Uranus
Sailor Uranus-one Innocent report for Kai; One innocent report for Kai
Cosmos-hime(me!)-one innocent report for Light; one guilty report for Kai
Kai (Sailor Mars)-one guilty report for Sailor Uranus; second report (???)
Aniat Zelleire-one innocent report for Light; second report (????)

Now, remember the roles that are left. We have the innocent cop, which will always get an innocent report. The confused cop-who will get random reports. And the insane cop, who gets reversed reports.

Now, back to the list. This is now a list of who could possibly be which role. I am currently not counting Aniat's claim to being confused. 
Light: confused or insane
Sailor Uranus: innocent, confused or insane
Cosmos-Hime: confused or insane
Kai (Sailor Mars): confused or insane
Aniat: innocent, confused, or insane

Now for the sake of tallying, another list! I'm not good at math, but here it goes.
the confused cop can get a possible 4 results-false report on innocent, false report on guilty, correct report on innocent, and correct report on guilty.
the innocent cop can get a possible 2 results-incorrect report on innocent or correct report on innocent.
the insane cop can get a possible of 2 results. incorrect report on innocent-meaning the report is guilty, or incorrect report on guilty-meaning the report is innocent.

meaning 
confused would have only two correct chances.
innocent would have one correct chance.
insane would have one correct chance.

Now, back to the investigations. 
Light: total of 12 possible reports, combining day one and two investigations.
Sailor Uranus: total of 16 possible reports, combining both day one and two investigations.
Cosmos-Hime: total of 12 possible reports, combining both day one and two investigations.
Kai (Sailor Mars): total of 6 possible reports from day one.
Aniat: total of 8 possible reports from day one. 

Now even more analyzing! 
Light: out of the 12 possible reports-only 6 could be accurate.
Sailor Uranus: out of the 16 possible reports-only 8 could be accurate. 
Cosmos-Hime: out of the 12 possible reports-only 6 could be accurate. 
Kai (Sailor Mars): out of the 6 possible reports-only 3 could be accurate.
Aniat: out of the 8 possible reports-only 4 could be accurate. 

LOOOOONG STORY SHORT Basically, everyone only has 50% accuracy with their reports as of right now. It is super frustrating to have done all that math to conclude the obvious aaaaa


I've decided to keep this post written as-is, even though it all turned out just the same stuff we already knew grrr this legit took me an hour I am so mad rn.  Hopefully, someone could make sense of it, and use some of the collected data to help with one of their own ideas. I was hoping to help narrow down who could be which role, but it doesn't seem to have done much. 

That is, unless we get a report from Kai and Aniat-and an explanation as to how Aniat seems so sure she's the confused cop.

___________________________


 GC's Official Sailor Cosmos
Back to top Go down
http://sailormoonfan224.tumblr.com/
Sailor Mars
Inner Senshi Admin
Administrative Director

avatar

Inner Senshi Admin   Administrative Director

Title : GC's Official Kaolinite
Posts : 1160
Join date : 2016-06-24
Age : 22
Location : Germany


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 11:53 pm

I had inno on Kyra and inno on Light Cosmos!

Okay a short post in the morning:

Anyway you are in a bit of a Dilemma now: Kyra and I being Mafia is being impossible. This would mean that Light and Cosmos are both Town. Since both of them could be only Insane or Confused, that means that if both are town, ONE of them HAS to be Insane. Which means: In that case I'd be confirmed Town so Kyra and I can't be a Team.

Anyway Anait, I'd appreciate if you post your report. A third Guilty Report on me would CONFIRM my innocence. Only two of them could be fake. If two of them are fake, then I can't be Mafia since the fake reports are Mafia. If only one of them isn't fake, then I can't be Mafia since the guilty Report confirm my innocence since one of them HAS to be the Insane Cop.

I'd also really appreciate if you reread my posts Anait. I have a valid reason (which is confirmed by Kyra who can't possible be in a Team with me) to accuse both of them.

___________________________


Back to top Go down
Sailor Mars
Inner Senshi Admin
Administrative Director

avatar

Inner Senshi Admin   Administrative Director

Title : GC's Official Kaolinite
Posts : 1160
Join date : 2016-06-24
Age : 22
Location : Germany


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 11:56 pm

(For better understanding: If only one of them isn't fake is refering to one of the 'fake' reports not being fake. This would mean there would be 2 valid Guilty Reports on me)

___________________________


Back to top Go down
Sailor Mars
Inner Senshi Admin
Administrative Director

avatar

Inner Senshi Admin   Administrative Director

Title : GC's Official Kaolinite
Posts : 1160
Join date : 2016-06-24
Age : 22
Location : Germany


PostSubject: Re: [Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]   15th September 2017, 11:59 pm

Oh and in case Anait has a guilty on me: Follow my lead and do what I say! ^___^

___________________________


Back to top Go down
 

[Beginner] Sailor Senshi Murder Mystery Mafia [MAFIA WIN!]

View previous topic View next topic Back to top 
Page 2 of 3Go to page : Previous  1, 2, 3  Next

Permissions in this forum:You cannot reply to topics in this forum
The Galaxy Cauldron :: Azabu-Juuban Arcades :: Crown Fruit Parlor :: The Hit List ~ Mafia Parlour-